I’m a betting man.

So when it comes to volatile issues like the recent soldier-abduction-meets-Gaza-incursion across the Israeli border, I can’t help but make a few prognostications about what we can expect in this Middle Eastern theatre in the coming weeks.

Sure, I’m needlessly putting my ass on the line for something so unpredictable. But isn’t it all worth it for that 50/50 shot at being right?

1. Gilad Shalit will get out of this alive. The 19-year-old corporal whose capture started this whole mess is just too valuable to his Hamas-associated captors to kill. As the best bargaining chip Hamas ever had, his fate may determine the difference between a weeklong battering and months of all-out war. Unless someone gets trigger-happy or an errant missile hits their location, there will be no point at which his life is seriously at risk—the cost of his death is just too high.

2. Israel will not release every Hamas government official they arrested. As of Thursday evening, Israel had arrested 64 Hamas ministers and parliamentarians, supposedly as “bargaining chips” to exchange for Shalit’s freedom. Though the world may assume their detainment lasts no longer than the duration of this bloody chapter, there’s just no way they’re all going free. I’d be surprised if Israel permanently holds any fewer than five.

3. We will see increasing violent protests (i.e. riots) in Egypt. Cairo is taking a lead role in trying to work out a diplomatic exchange between the two sides. But spurred on by government-run media, the man on the street in Egypt—not to mention Jordan and Saudi Arabia—is furious about what they view as an Israeli act of war. And while Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak is playing negotiator, his outlawed opposing party Muslim Brotherhood is pushing for pro-Palestinian rallies. I say rallies become riots within weeks, if not days.

4. Syria is in the crosshairs. Hamas’ top bananas—notably their political leader Khaled Mashaal—are based out of Damascus, so it should be no surprise that Israel has been sending warplanes over Syria. With a strong possibility that Mashaal gave the green light for the soldier’s capture while Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniya is left to deal with the consequences, Israel may begin directing their Hamas-snuffing efforts across the Syrian border. Expect to see at least one car or building blow up in Damascus sometime soon.

5. Palestine’s government will come out of this whole experience weaker. The presence of Israeli soldiers has always made the extremist position more appealing—in the short run. But when the smoke clears, Hamas will have to demonstrate their ability to take on reconstruction when they’d rather be rallying. At the same time, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ moderate position will be weakened by the entire experience. And when Palestinian leaders become weakened, you don’t see speeches. You see security forces marching in the streets. If you thought Gaza was unstable before, just wait.


Doubt any of these outcomes? I’ll be happy to put my money where my mouth is—that is, until I’m proven embarrassingly wrong. Predicting’s a bitch, isn’t it?