Since the last International Power Rankings posted on July 6, we've seen the beginning, middle and end of Operation: Lebanon. What we're witnessing now is an aftermath that is playing out like a classic "What If?" scenario—what if the "international community" tried to proactively transition a war situation into a peace?

With harsh Realpolitik themes like deadlines (a good solution now is better than a great solution next month), authority (who's responsible for assembling this force? For leading it?) and the concept of following promises with action, this is truly a landmark experiment in international law and order. Can't wait to see how it all plays out.

Previous rankings:   6.19.06 | 7.5.06


1. United States. America's biggest role in the war was the refusal to take action. While this was a clear indication that it supported Israel's effort to destroy Hezbollah, it was also a clear indication that international action operates much slower in the absence of American influence.

2. China. How to become a superpower in 20 years: ally yourself with just about anyone (i.e. Iran and Venezuela), refuse to get involved in volatile situations (i.e. Iraq and Lebanon), and wait it out.

3. Russia. Along with China, Russia's biggest contribution to the world in the past few months is its prevention of any UN Security Council action against Iran. Thanks, Putin.

4. Japan. As Russia and China get cozy, Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi is making an effort to reintroduce Tokyo to the rest of Asia. If he fails, it's only a matter of time before the words "Shanghai Cooperation Organization" becomes synonymous with "Warsaw Pact."

5. France. Worked out a ceasefire in southern Lebanon: score one for France. Eventually following up with a dedication of 2,000 troops and UNIFIL leadership until February: score two for France. Now the only thing that stands between Chirac and a Nobel Peace Prize is Hezbollah. Don't hold your breath.

6. Britain. Airport terror breakups + all troops tied up in Iraq = a country playing defense in the power game.

7. Germany. A flat-out refusal to get in a position where they may have to fire on Israelis means that, for the time being, Germany has to sit this out. I know we're all itching for those German troops to get back in action, but we'll just have to wait a little longer.

8. India. Steady economic growth and gradual nuclear legitimacy may create superpowers, but they don't make headlines. Not this decade, anyway.

9. Pakistan. Here's to Pakistan: the source of (and solution to) all the world's terror.

10. Iran. Well, here you have it. Iran in the Top Ten—and, for the first time since the Power Rankings began, ahead of Israel. Brilliant tactical move #1: use Hezbollah to bait Israel. Brilliant tactical move #2: gave Hezbollah over half a billion dollars to rebuild Lebanese homes. Now they're using their buddies Russia and China to keep Security Council sanctions at bay. It's Iran's world, people, and we're just living it in.

11. Italy. Welcome to the Big Leagues.

12. Israel. They destroyed enough of civilian Lebanon to piss off the world ten times over, but destroyed too little of Hezbollah to declare victory. Translation: Israel didn't win this one, people. And now, as Israel's air of invincibility dissipates alongside the rise of Iran, they may have to change both their short-term and long-term tactics. Would not want to be in Ehud Olmert's shoes right now.

13. Brazil. The Age of Brazil will come someday, but it's clear they're not yet ready to enter the game. Have you heard the Brazilian position on Lebanon? Iran? Israel? Cuba? Didn't think so.

14. South Korea. When North Korea stays out of the news, South Korea stays out of the news—and I don't think they mind.

15. Turkey. Along with Italy, Turkey seems to be the one country that A) has the muscle and international standing to play a big role in southern Lebanon and B) meets the approval of both Israel and the Lebanese. So why mess up their great standing by actually getting their hands dirty?

16. Canada. I've been waiting patiently for Canada to do something. Any day now.

17. Egypt. Iran's victory (through Hezbollah) is Egypt's loss. Nothing makes an "honest broker" look impotent like the emergence of a "war hero."

18. Australia. They're economically prosperous, politically stable and militarily strong. Oh, and they're Anglo. If history tells us anything, it's that Oceania's borders are about to expand.

19. Poland. America gets a little weaker, France gets a little stronger; Ukraine looks eastward, Germany looks westward; and Poland keeps on truckin'.

20. Saudi Arabia. The house of Saud openly criticized Hezbollah's actions leading up to Israel's invasion. Now, after Hezbollah's "victory", expect the Saudis to lay low for a while.

21. Venezuela. Yes, you're seeing this correctly: Venezuela just jumped ahead of Mexico. Think I'm crazy? Right now, Hugo Chavez is the most influential leader in Latin America, and he's amassed some impressive allies and scored some political victories for his friends along the way. Oh yeah, and oil.

22. Mexico. A nation in the grips of a disputed election is like a man with his testicles in a vice: he's still a man for the time being, but he's not about to make any drastic moves. Look for Mexico to sit out the next few plays.

23. Syria. As Iran's stock rises, so too does Syria. But in that neighborhood, a high profile isn't always what you're going for.

24. Palestine. You can be sure that Hamas is taking notes on Hezbollah.

25. North Korea. You can be sure that Kim Jung-Il is taking notes on
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Almost ranked: Ukraine, Indonesia, Spain, South Africa, Jordan.